Weekly Roundup Mar. 23-27
MARKETS STAY VOLATILE | CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS | ENERGY SECTOR LEADS
By: Lorenzo Alfonso and Hollis Costa
Mar. 29, 2026
Market Snapshot
S&P500: -2.47% | Russel 2000: -1.87% | Dow Jones: -2.56% | Oil (WTI): 17.62% | Gold (GLD): -3.62% | VIX: 23.02% | 10 yr Treasury Yield: 4.313%
The Economy at a Glance
Major U.S. stock indexes finished volatile as investors continue to digest the Iran and Israel conflict. Oil prices continued to surge last week due to the situation. Uncertainty around the conflict’s duration and its potential impact on energy markets also drove U.S. Treasury trading, pushing yields higher as investors reassessed inflation risks and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.
Prices of U.S. government bonds fell, which sent rates higher. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.15%, up from 3.96% last week.
Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment
Jobless claims for the week ending March 21 came in at 210,000, an increase from 205,000 the prior week.
Last week, the economic calendar wrapped up with the University of Michigan reporting that the March consumer sentiment index declined to 53.3, down from 56.6 in February. This suggests consumers are losing confidence in the economy during a volatile month.
The report noted that consumers’ short-term economic outlook dropped 14%, while expectations for personal finances over the next year declined 10%. Expectations for inflation in the year ahead rose to 3.8%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from February and the largest month-over-month rise since April 2025.
With markets struggling, investors are asking: where are returns coming from? Right now, the answer is energy.
Energy sector Finds Room to Grow Amidst Growing Market Decline
This week, the energy sector found room to grow despite broader market weakness. Ongoing conflict in Iran continued to drive instability and weigh on consumer sentiment.
The S&P 500 Energy sector rose 1.87%, while the NYSE Energy Sector Index gained 1.54% by the close on March 27.
Like the broader market, the energy sector continues to move based on developments in Iran. This past week, tensions escalated, with reports suggesting potential disruption threats to the Strait of Hormuz. This led traders to add a geopolitical risk premium to crude oil, pushing prices higher and benefiting companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron.
On the flip side, oil prices could decline if markets begin to see signs of stability or resolution in the conflict.
Overall, the energy sector’s gains highlight its sensitivity to geopolitical events, especially in regions critical to global oil supply. While rising tensions have supported prices, the trend remains fragile and highly dependent on future developments.
Looking Ahead
This upcoming Friday, we will see whether February’s weaker-than-expected jobs data continued into March. The economy lost roughly 92,000 jobs in February, marking the third decline in the past five months.
Markets will be closed on Friday, April 3rd, in observance of Good Friday.
Glossary:
10-Year Treasury Yield
This is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years. It impacts things like mortgage rates and borrowing costs. When it rises, money gets more expensive.
Consumer Sentiment
This measures how confident people feel about the economy and their finances. When this drops, people usually spend less, which can slow down the economy.
Geopolitical Risk Premium
This is extra price added to assets like oil when there’s conflict or uncertainty. Basically, traders are pricing in “what if things get worse.”
Jobless Claims
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits each week. It’s one of the quickest ways to see if the job market is weakening or staying strong.
Energy Sector
This includes companies involved in oil, gas, and energy production. These stocks tend to rise when oil prices go up, especially during global conflict.
