Weekly Roundup Mar. 2-6

MARKETS CONTINUE VOLATILE | JOB REPORTS | OIL PRICES SURGE 

By: Lorenzo Alfonso and Hollis Costa

Mar. 8, 2026

Market Snapshot

S&P500: -0.70% | Russel 2000: -0.41% | Dow Jones: -1.67% | Oil (WTI): 17.62% | Gold (GLD): -0.48% | VIX: 13.99% | 10 yr Treasury Yield: 4.121%

The Economy at a Glance

Major U.S. stock indexes finished volatile as investors digest the Iran and Israel war. Oil prices continued to surge last week from the conflict. Uncertainty about the conflict’s duration and its potential impact on energy markets also drove U.S. Treasury trading, pushing yields higher as investors reassessed inflation risks and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

Prices of U.S. government bonds fell, which sent rates higher. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.15%, up from 3.96% last week.

International Selloff

Ex: U.S. stock indexes sustained far bigger weekly declines than their U.S. counterparts. An ex-U.S. developed-market benchmark, the MSCI EAFE Index, and its emerging-markets counterpart, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, were both down nearly 7% for the week.

February Job Report

Job data for February came back underwhelming for most economists. Expectations assumed that January’s momentum would continue, when there was an increase of 130,000 jobs (see weekly roundup Feb. 9–13). February saw job growth fall to roughly 92,000.

Healthcare accounted for around a third of the loss, losing roughly 30,000 jobs. Much of this loss came as a result of a strike by 31,000 Kaiser Permanente workers representing UNAC/UHCP (United Nurses Associations of California / Union of Health Care Professionals), which temporarily pulled many healthcare employees off payroll. Workers were fighting over core issues such as understaffing, heavy workloads, patient safety concerns, and more.

Another sector that saw a significant decline was the leisure and hospitality industry, losing about 27,000 jobs. Several factors could have contributed to this decline, including severe winter weather or hesitancy about hiring in unpredictable times. However, restaurant staffing remains slightly above pre-pandemic levels.

Overall, February’s job report was weaker than the U.S. had hoped, but it should be viewed as a warning sign rather than a clear turning point. Many of the lost healthcare jobs will likely return, hopefully under better conditions. One weak month does not signal a recession; we will have to wait and see whether March continues the downward trend or if February proves to be just a blip.

Looking Ahead

Next week a CPI report is scheduled for Wednesday, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index may offer some clarity on inflation trends. Inflation is currently easing around 2.4% annually.

Also on Wednesday, the federal budget from the Department of the Treasury will be released.

·      On Friday, several reports are scheduled for release including:

·      Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

·      Fourth-quarter GDP (second estimate) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

·      Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

·      Durable Goods Orders — U.S. Census Bureau

·      University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)