The 2026 IPO Window

A Stress Test for Public Markets

By: Kennedy Lewallen

Jan. 30, 2026

After a slower and more selective period for public listings following the 2021 IPO boom, equity capital markets are beginning to show signs of life again. Following a pickup in IPO activity in 2025, which marked the strongest issuance environment since the 2021 peak, strategists are increasingly looking ahead to 2026 as a year that could feature not just more deals, but materially larger ones. Rather than a broad wave of speculative growth listings, the next cycle appears likely to be defined by a smaller number of category-defining companies with the scale, revenue visibility, and strategic importance to justify public market scrutiny after a prolonged period of cautious investor sentiment.

If the IPO market is truly back, its stress test could come from two possible names at opposite ends of innovation: OpenAI and SpaceX.

OpenAI: The $60B Question

One of the most closely watched potential listings is OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT and some of the most widely used frontier AI models in the world. In private markets, OpenAI has already reached valuation levels that place it among the most valuable companies ever to remain privately held. Recent secondary transactions and funding rounds are fueling discussion of a public debut that could imply an IPO size north of $60 billion. A deal of that magnitude would be unprecedented, surpassing even the largest technology IPOs in history and forcing public markets to confront a simple question: can they absorb a listing of that scale in a single transaction?

The strategic logic for an eventual IPO is clear. Training and deploying state-of-the-art AI models requires enormous and ongoing investment in computers, data centers, and specialized chips. While private capital has been willing to fund that expansion so far, the public markets offer a deeper and more permanent source of capital, as well as liquidity for early investors and employees. An IPO would also mark a transition in how OpenAI is valued, shifting from venture-style expectations to a framework that demands clearer paths to sustainable revenue and operating leverage.

That transition, however, comes with competitive and valuation risk. The AI landscape is increasingly shaped by winner-takes-most dynamics, but the identity of those winners is still being contested. NVIDIA has become an indispensable supplier of computing infrastructure that supports nearly every major model. At the same time, Google represents a vertically integrated rival, combining proprietary models, custom chips, cloud distribution, and one of the largest data reservoirs in the world. Against that backdrop, OpenAI must convince public investors that its leadership in models, partnerships, and product ecosystem can translate into a durable competitive advantage, rather than a short-lived technological edge.

This tension ties into a broader debate over whether current AI valuations reflect the long-term value of building a foundational platform, or whether they are being pushed higher by short-term enthusiasm and market narrative. Supporters argue that generative AI is a foundational shift in productivity and software, justifying valuations that appear extreme by historical standards. Skeptics argue that with intensifying competition, the potential commoditization of AI models, and the growing leverage of infrastructure providers, could put pressure on margins over time. An OpenAI IPO would therefore not only test the market’s appetite for size, but also its willingness to underwrite long-duration uncertainty in exchange for exposure to what many believe is the most important technological wave of the decade.

SpaceX: Universe to Utility

On the other end of the spectrum sits SpaceX, a company that has evolved from an ambitious space exploration venture into what increasingly resembles a core piece of global communications. While SpaceX is still closely associated with rocket launches and deep-space exploration, its financial profile today is increasingly being shaped by Starlink, its satellite internet business, which generates recurring, subscription-based revenue from consumers, enterprises, and governments around the world.

This shift has transformed how investors think about a potential SpaceX IPO. Rather than being valued purely on technological promise, SpaceX can now be framed as an infrastructure asset with visible cash flows, long-term contracts, and extremely high barriers to entry. Starlink’s expanding subscriber base, combined with launch services and growing defense and government relationships, gives the company a blend of characteristics more commonly associated with telecommunications utilities and prime contractors.

From a public market perspective, this profile is compelling. Recurring revenue, strategic importance, and scarcity of comparable assets tend to attract a broad investor base and support premium valuations. Unlike in the AI sector, where multiple players are racing toward similar goals, SpaceX operates in a field with limited true competition, supported by decades of technical know-how, massive capital investment, and regulatory and logistical moats that are difficult to replicate. As a result, a SpaceX IPO would likely be viewed less as a speculative growth story and more as the public listing of a dominant, infrastructure-like platform at the center of global connectivity and space access.

Conclusion: Next Capital Cycle

Together, OpenAI and SpaceX represent two very different tests of what public markets are willing to underwrite in the next phase. One is a bet on software, scale, and the future of artificial intelligence in a competitive landscape. The other is a bet on physical infrastructure, long-term contracts, and technological dominance, with increasingly visible and recurring revenue streams. If either company comes to market in 2026, it will be more than just another IPO. It will be a signal of whether investors are ready to price innovation at an unprecedented scale. More broadly, it may mark the beginning of a more selective era for public markets, where fewer companies list, but those that do are expected to justify not only their growth, but their long-term strategic importance in shaping the next decade.