Weekly Roundup Nov. 17-21

EARNINGS REPORT | JOBS REPORT | RATE CUT? 

By: Lorenzo Alfonso

Nov. 23, 2025

Market Snapshot:  

S&P500: -2.11% | Russel 2000: -.79% | Dow Jones: -1.86% | Oil (WTI): -.54% | Gold: .36% | VIX: 11.31% | 10 yr Treasury Yield: 4.06% 

Update in the economy:  

Our most major headline in the economy was the September jobs report. Hiring increased, which is a good sign for graduates in December. 119,000 new positions were added to the job market. On the other hand, conflicting data show a rise in unemployment to a four-year peak of 4.4%. 
The government also released its report on citizens applying for unemployment benefits as states continue to pay benefits. Initial unemployment claims fell to about 220,000 in the latest week, while continuing claims rose to roughly 1.97 million. This means fewer new layoffs, but people out of work are taking longer to find jobs. 

What Moved Markets? 

AI valuation, as I mentioned last week, remains uncertain. I said we were going to keep an eye on NVIDIA’s earnings report and others. NVIDIA was important for the market because it is central to AI. If they didn’t meet earnings, there could have been some shake-up. 

NVIDIA Earnings Report 

NVIDIA is talked about a lot in the market, but what do they do? Founded in 1993, it makes and sells chips for systems used in vehicles, robotics, and more. These chips are a key component of the AI ecosystem, which is why the company is a major market driver. 

NVIDIA reported on November 19th $57.0 billion in revenue for Q3. This is up 22% from Q2. Data-center revenue was $51.2 billion, up 25% from Q2. 

"Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out," CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. 
Despite an impressive beat, investors still weren’t sold. The stock fell 3.15%, and market headwinds about AI and company valuations were still a concern after the report. 

In good news for the company, the Commerce Department approved the sale of up to 70,000 AI chips to two companies based in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. While it’s a small allocation, the approval could point the way to bigger sales of chips to the Middle East in the future for NVIDIA and its peers. 

Walmart Earnings Report 

As we get closer to the holiday season, shoppers are still spending. Revenue rose 5.8% to $179.5 billion for Q3, exceeding analyst’s expectations. 

"We saw strength across income cohorts, and especially with higher-income households," said Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon on an earnings call. 

Prices at Walmart rose 1.3%, the company said, which puts pressure on lower-income shoppers.  

Walmart’s CEO also announced his retirement, and the company appointed John Furner, President of Walmart, to be CEO starting next year. Walmart may have a good chance of meeting expectations in Q4 as well, based on holiday shopping and jobless claims, despite rising prices due to tariffs and inflationary pressures. 

In other news, as I noted last week, Bitcoin fell to $85,000 by Friday afternoon. In October it reached a record price of $125,000. 

Will there be a rate cut? 

Last week, the weekly report mentioned the Fed odds of cutting rates. On December 10th we will watch the final decision, but investors increasingly believe a rate cut is coming. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.08%–4.11%. That helps keep mortgage rates near recent lows. For Dec. 10, futures now put roughly two-thirds odds on a small rate cut (per CME FedWatch). 

 
The job market data released might give more justification for a rate cut next month, with unemployment rising to the highest level in almost four years. Policymakers are dealing with higher inflation and higher job losses at the same time. We are seeing slower hiring and still elevated prices. Because they remain undivided, it is still unclear whether a decision will be made, since the Fed won’t have the government’s latest job and inflation data at its meeting. 

Looking ahead 

I wish everyone at CSU and in the community a wonderful and blessed Thanksgiving. Safe travels to everyone going home and to those staying in Colorado. 

Markets will be closed on Thursday, November 27th, 2025, and will close early on November 28th at 11 a.m. MT. Following this Black Friday and Cyber Monday are coming up as well. 
The financial news is light next week, but we are waiting on some delayed reports and keeping an eye on a potential rally in the tech-heavy Nasdaq next week.   

Terms in this article

Unemployment rate: Share of people in the labor force who are out of work and looking for a job. 

Initial vs. continuing claims: New applications for unemployment benefits vs. the number of people still receiving them. Rising “continuing” claims can mean it’s taking longer to land a job.  

Ten-year Treasury yield: The interest rate the U.S. pays to borrow for ten years; many loan rates (like mortgages) move with it. 

CME FedWatch: A public tool that turns futures prices into probabilities for the next central-bank rate decision. Cite it when you mention “odds.”  

Data-center revenue (Nvidia): Sales tied to chips used to train and run artificial-intelligence models in server farms.  

VIX: A market index nicknamed the “fear gauge” that tends to rise when stock volatility jumps; it’s an index level, not a percent.