Weekly Roundup Feb. 9-13
JOB REPORTS | INFLATION REPORT | MORE VOLATILTY
By: Lorenzo Alfonso and Hollis Costa
Feb. 15, 2026
Market Snapshot
S&P500: -1.96% | Russel 2000: -1.76% | Dow Jones: -1.65% | Oil (WTI): 14.44% | Gold (GLD): -0.69% | VIX: 18.53% | 10 yr Treasury Yield: 4.098%
The Economy at a Glance
Love was not in the air for the stock markets last week. Major stock market indexes finished the week lower, with volatility picking up from the week prior. The January jobs report was also released.
The Nasdaq led the decline, falling roughly 2.10%, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones dropped 1.39% and 1.23%, respectively. The S&P MidCap Index held up the best but still slipped 0.66%. The Russell 1000 Value Index outperformed its growth counterpart for the seventh consecutive week.
Inflation Report
The CPI data released Friday indicated that prices rose 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year. This is down from December readings of 0.3% and 2.7%. The primary reason for slower inflation growth was a notable decrease in energy prices. Core inflation, however, rose. Core inflation excludes the more volatile food and energy categories.
The Commerce Department reported that retail sales were unchanged. Eight of the thirteen major retail categories declined, including furniture, clothing, and electronics.
Job Reports Signal a Hopeful Future
On Wednesday the 11th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its official January 2026 employment report. The report exceeded expectations, with payrolls increasing by roughly 130,000 — well above the projected 50,000 to 70,000 range. This was a relief considering the slower growth seen in 2025, when the unemployment rate climbed, higher tariffs kept employers cautious about hiring, and total job gains reached just 181,000 compared to expectations near 584,000.
Specific industries drove this rebound. Health care led the way, adding approximately 82,000 jobs as it continued recovering from staffing shortages. The sector is also working to meet the needs of an aging population and the steady demand for medical services.
Social assistance accounted for another large portion of gains, adding around 33,000 jobs. This includes non-medical roles such as child care, disability support, foster care, and community programs. The steady growth in the older population — largely driven by the baby boomer generation — has increased demand for these services. Despite broader economic turbulence, social assistance programs tend to remain stable because they serve essential, ongoing needs.
Other sectors contributed to the overall increase as well. Construction benefited from large projects already financed, including data centers, factory upgrades, and infrastructure developments. Business services such as IT, consulting, and engineering also saw gains, likely reflecting the growing complexity of technology and AI integration across industries.
The country today exists in a state of tension. Recession rumors continue to circulate, conversations about AI’s long-term impact are ongoing, and policy changes from the current administration have kept markets on edge. In times like these, a strong jobs report offers a refreshing sign of stability. While uncertainty remains, statistics like this suggest the American economy is more resilient than many fear.
Looking Ahead
Next week, major market indexes will be closed in observance of Presidents Day. Trading will resume Tuesday, February 17th.
On Friday, GDP estimates will provide insight into whether the U.S. economy’s recent growth carried through the fourth quarter. We will also receive the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, Consumer Sentiment data from the University of Michigan, and the New Home Sales report.
Glossary
Core Inflation
This strips out food and energy prices because they move around a lot month to month. It gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.
Payrolls
When you hear “payrolls increased,” it simply means more people are employed and receiving paychecks. It’s one of the cleanest ways to measure job growth.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
This measures the total value of everything produced in the country. If it’s growing, the economy is expanding. If it’s shrinking, that’s when recession talk picks up.
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
This is another inflation measure and the one the Federal Reserve tends to prefer. It tracks how much consumers are spending and how prices are changing within that spending.
