Weekly Roundup Apr. 6-10
Market finds stability | CPI & PCE Inflation Signals | Potential Ceasefire’s Market Impact
By: Hollis Costa
Apr. 12, 2026
Market Snapshot - S&P 500: +3.7% - Dow: +3.0% - Nasdaq: +4.3% - Russell 2000: +4.0% - WTI Crude Oil -15% - Gold: +2.0% - 10-year Treasury: +12 bps
Economy at a Glance
US Equities had a strong week with major markets all finishing positive around 3-4%. Oil has continued to be a massive driver depending on the situation unfolding in Iran. Gold also finished higher, signaling that investors are still positioning themselves defensively. Rates stayed relatively stable this week, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil.
Consumer Price Reports
This past week the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) respectively. The CPI showed headline inflation at 3.3% year-over-year for March 2026, up from 2.4% in February. This jump can be partly attributed to spikes in energy prices which ripple throughout the economy. The Core CPI (CPI without Food and Energy) was much steadier at 2.6% for March year-over-year compared to 2.5% in February. This reaffirms the energy sector's effect on headline inflation jumps.
The PCE report showed a 2.8% change year-over-year for February 2026 and Core PCE at 3.0%. This illustrates that things like healthcare, housing, transportation, and clothing costs have risen higher than the major drivers, food and energy.
Overall, both of these reports illustrate a substantial increase in inflation, primarily as a result of higher energy prices. But both Core reports still show inflation in other sectors. The American people will wait and see if deescalations in Iran can bring this back down, or if too much damage has been done.
Talks of Ceasefire and Market Sentiment
This past week, a potential ceasefire was announced by President Donald Trump and was described as a fragile two-week truce where more discussion would be had. This excited the markets, immediately reducing geopolitical risk and somewhat stabilizing markets, particularly Oil prices. Talks of a ceasefire also helped reduce the market stress of tariffs placed on countries supplying weapons to Iran. The situation has yet to settle as an agreement to the safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be reached. Depending on how these discussions go, Oil prices and broader markets could find stability or just more chaos.
Looking Ahead
Talks of a ceasefire are helping to stabilize markets and reduce inflation expectations. Drops in oil and Treasury Yields also show a market leaning towards easier policy. However, CPI and PCE numbers still show inflation above the Fed’s target of 2% reducing pressure to cut rates immediately.
Next week, follow-ups on the ceasefire will dictate where the market goes. We will also see reports of jobless claims and retail sales this Thursday providing an inside look into the lives of the American people.
Glossary
CPI: A monthly inflation report showing how prices are changing for a basket of consumer goods and services. ● PCE: A broader inflation measure based on consumer spending; the Fed watches this closely.
Core CPI / Core PCE: The same inflation reports, but excluding food and energy so you can see the underlying trend more clearly.
Geopolitical risk: The chance that wars, conflicts, or political shocks disrupt markets, trade, or energy prices.
Tariffs: Taxes on imports that can raise costs, push up inflation, and slow growth.
Ceasefire: A temporary stop in fighting that can calm oil prices and reduce market stress.
Jobless claims / retail sales: Key real-economy reports that show whether the labor market and consumer spending are holding up.
