Weekly Roundup Oct. 27-31
Weekly macro view and how it impacts you
By: Kennedy Lewallen
Markets closed last week still operating without full macro visibility, as the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown continued to delay important economic releases including last week’s scheduled GDP advance estimate, Jobless Claims, and the monthly Employment Situation report. With these anchoring datapoints not being released, investors spent most of the week reacting to secondary indicators and sentiment or feelings rather than the major growth and labor signals that normally drive positioning. Beyond the market impact, the shutdown also highlighted how political gridlock itself is now becoming a real economic variable and restricting transparency.
Consumer Confidence slipped again in October. People still feel relatively solid about current conditions, but expectations for the next 6 - 12 months are weakening. Housing data, coming from the Case-Shiller Index, also confirmed that price momentum continues to cool. Meanwhile, oil logged a third consecutive monthly decline, providing some early disinflation support through gas prices. Treasury yields finished the week roughly stable, while the U.S. dollar remained firm into the end of the month.
This environment means inflation progress is happening, but rate cuts probably won’t move quickly. Student loan rates, credit card APRs, and financing costs are likely to stay elevated longer than people expected at the start of fall semester. Hiring remains decent but is slowing, and it is important to keep an eye out for the Jobless Claims report once those reports resume, because this directly affects new graduates. We are already seeing signs that the Class of 2025 has received fewer job offers than the Class of 2024 at a rate of 0.78 offers per student in 2025 vs the 1.13 in 2024. This is 31% fewer offers YoY, and early forecasts suggest Class of 2026 could face an even softer hiring landscape.
Overall, this week has been muddy water for investors. With delayed reports comes unclear outcomes and decisions being made with little transparency and data.